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Emerging Market Banks: Current Dynamics, Outlook, and Key Players (2025–2028)

Emerging market (EM) banks enter 2025 at an inflection point. Funding costs remain elevated after two years of global monetary tightening, while trade frictions and regulatory adjustments test resilience. Yet structural drivers—demographics, digital adoption, and the deepening of local-currency markets—position EM banks for renewed growth. Margins are set to normalize, but retail credit and payments ecosystems are likely to expand significantly. Over the medium term, leadership will consolidate around a few well-capitalized franchises in India, Indonesia, Mexico, and the Gulf.

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